Child Pornography Offenders and Re-offense Risk

For an in-depth review of issues related to online sex offending, go to “CLE Seminars” on this website and view Dr. Simpson’s handout “Online Sex Offense: What Every Attorney Should Know.”

The Criminal Histories and Later Offending of Child Pornography Offenders.
Seto, Michael C., et.al., (April 2005).  The criminal histories and later offending of child pornography offenders.  Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment, Vol 17(2), pp. 201-210.
Abstract:
The likelihood that child pornography offenders will later commit a contact sexual offense is unknown. In the present study, we identified a sample of 201 adult male child pornography offenders using police databases and examined their charges or convictions after the index child pornography offense(s). We also examined their criminal records to identify potential predictors of later offenses: 56% of the sample had a prior criminal record, 24% had prior contact sexual offenses, and 15% had prior childpornography offenses. One-third were concurrently charged with other crimes at the time they were charged for child pornographyoffenses. The average time at risk was 2.5 years; 17% of the sample offended again in some way during this time, and 4% committed a new contact sexual offense. Child pornography offenders with prior criminal records were significantly more likely to offend again in any way during the follow-up period. Child pornography offenders who had committed a prior or concurrent contact sexual offense were the most likely to offend again, either generally or sexually.

The consumption of Internet child pornography and violent and sex offending.
Endrass, Jérôme, et. al. (2009, July 14).
BMC Psychiatry, Vol 9, ArtID 43.
Abstract:
Background: There is an ongoing debate on whether consumers of child pornography pose a risk for hands-on sex offenses. Up until now, there have been very few studies which have analyzed the association between the consumption of childpornography and the subsequent perpetration of hands-on sex offenses. The aim of this study was to examine the recidivism rates for hands-on and hands-off sex offenses in a sample of child pornography users using a 6 year follow-up design. Methods: The current study population consisted of 231 men, who were subsequently charged with consumption of illegal pornographic material after being detected by a special operation against Internet child pornography, conducted by the Swiss police in 2002. Criminal history, as well as recidivism, was assessed using the criminal records from 2008. Results: 4.8% (n = 11) of the study sample had a prior conviction for a sexual and/or violent offense, 1% (n = 2) for a hands-on sex offense, involving child sexual abuse, 3.3% (n = 8) for a hands-off sex offense and one for a nonsexual violent offense. When applying a broad definition of recidivism, which included ongoing investigations, charges and convictions, 3% (n = 7) of the study sample recidivated with a violent and/or sex offense, 3.9% (n = 9) with a hands-off sex offense and 0.8% (n = 2) with a hands-on sex offense. Conclusion: Consuming childpornography alone is not a risk factor for committing hands-on sex offenses—at least not for those subjects who had never committed a hands-on sex offense. The majority of the investigated consumers had no previous convictions for hands-on sex offenses. For those offenders, the prognosis for hands-on sex offenses, as well as for recidivism with child pornography, is favorable.

The use of actuarial risk assessment measures with UK internet child pornography offenders.
Osborn, Jody; Elliott, Ian A.; Middleton, David.; Beech, Anthony R..
Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, Vol 2(3), Jul, 2010. pp. 16-24.
Abstract:
The present study investigates the use of two actuarial assessment measures—Risk Matrix 2000 and Static 99—with individuals convicted of downloading child pornography on the internet. A UK community-based sample of convicted internet sex offenders was assessed using both a standard and a revised version of RM2000 and Static 99 and assessed for rates of reconviction. None of the offenders in the sample were convicted of a further sexual crime between a one-and-a-half and four-year follow-up. These results suggest reconviction rates for internet sex offenders are lower than for contact child sex offenders. It was found that both the standard version of RM2000 and Static-99 overestimate the risk levels posed by internet offenders and that an adapted version of RM2000 may be a more realistic measure of risk level in this population. In addition, it was noted that a higher frequency of low-risk offenders appeared to be accessing images of younger children and images depicting more serious victimization than high-risk offenders.

Contact sexual offending by men with online sexual offenses.
Seto, Michael C., Hanson, R. Karl. Babchishin, Kelly M..
Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment, Vol 23(1), Mar, 2011. pp. 124-145.
Abstract:
There is much concern about the likelihood that online sexual offenders (particularly online child pornography offenders) have either committed or will commit offline sexual offenses involving contact with a victim. This study addresses this question in two meta analyses: the first examined the contact sexual offense histories of online offenders, whereas the second examined the recidivism rates from follow-up studies of online offenders. The first meta-analysis found that approximately 1 in 8 online offenders (12%) have an officially known contact sexual offense history at the time of their index offense (k = 21, N = 4,464). Approximately one in two (55%) online offenders admitted to a contact sexual offense in the six studies that had self-report data (N = 523). The second meta-analysis revealed that 4.6% of online offenders committed a new sexual offense of some kind during a 1.5- to 6-year follow-up (k = 9, N = 2,630); 2.0% committed a contact sexual offense and 3.4% committed a new child pornography offense. The results of these two quantitative reviews suggest that there may be a distinct subgroup of online-only offenders who pose relatively low risk of committing contact sexual offenses in the future.

Specifics:

• 4.6% of online offenders committed a new sexual offense for total sample.
• 2.0% of online offenders committed a new contact offense
• 3.4% of online offenders committed a new CP offense
• (Turner critiques this study)

Examining the criminal history and future offending of child pornography offenders: An extended prospective follow-up study.
Eke, Angela W.. Seto, Michael C., Williams, Jennette.
Law and Human Behavior, Vol 35(6), Dec, 2011. pp. 466-478.
Abstract:
We examined police occurrence and criminal records data for a sample of 201 registered male child pornography offenders originally reported by Seto and Eke (Sex Abus J Res Treat 17:201–210, 2005), extending the average follow-up time for this sample to 5.9 years. In addition, we obtained the same data for another 340 offenders, increasing our full sample to 541 men, with a total average follow-up of 4.1 years. In the extended follow- up of the original sample, 34% of offenders had new charges for any type of reoffense, with 6% charged with a contact sexual offense against a child and an additional 3% charged with historical contact sex offenses (i.e., previously undetected offenses). For the full sample, there was a 32% any recidivism rate; 4% of offenders were charged with new contact sex offences, an additional 2% of offenders were charged with historical contact sex offenses and 7% of offenders were charged with a new child pornography offense. Predictors of new violent (including sexual contact) offending were prior offense history, including violent history, and younger offender age. Approximately a quarter of the sample was sanctioned for a failure on conditional release; in half of these failures, the offenders were in contact with children or used the internet, often to access pornography again.

Regarding recidivism, this study found:

For CP, but non-violent (non-contact) (n=108)

• • • Any re-offense = 40.2%
    • Release failure = 30.8%
    • Violent/sex = 5.6%
    • Contact sex = 1.9%
    • Noncontact sex/CP = 10.3%
    • CP = 8.4%

In contrast, for CP that includes contact (n=163)

• • • Any re-offense = 50.5%
    • Release failure = 35.4%
    • Violent/sex = 12.1%
    • Contact sex = 8.7%
    • Noncontact sex / CP = 11.2%
    • CP = 8.7%

2012 Report to the Congress: Federal Child Pornography Offenses
Saris, et al. (2012) United States Sentencing Commission
http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/news/congressional-testimony-and-reports/sex-offense-topics/201212-federal-child-pornography-offenses/Chapter_11.pdf

“…the general recidivism rate was 30.0 percent (183 of 610 offenders). . . failures were almost evenly split between arrests or convictions for new crimes and arrests or revocations for others violations of the conditions of their supervision:

• 9 percent (97 of 610 offenders) were arrested for (and in some cases convicted of) a new criminal offense; and
• 1 percent (86 of 610 offenders) violated the conditions of their supervision or failed to register or report as sex offenders without an arrest for any other new criminal offense.
• The sexual recidivism rate for all offenders was 7.4 percent (45 of the 610 cases). Of those 45 offenders:
• 22 offenders (or 6% of all 610 cases) were arrested for or convicted of sexual “contact” offenses (e.g., rape or sexual assault of a child or adult);
• 14 offenders (3% of the 610 cases) were arrested for or convicted of a subsequent child pornography offense;and
• the remaining nine offenders (5% of the 610 offenders) were arrested for or convicted of a non-contact sex offense involving obscenity or commercial sex.

Of the 97 offenders who were arrested for any type of new offense during the eight-and- one-half-year follow-up period, the vast majority (77, or 79.4%) were arrested once during the period. Twenty offenders (20.6%) were arrested more than once during the follow-up period. Similarly, of those 86 offenders whose recidivism was limited to violating the conditions of their supervised release or probation, 67 (77.9%) did so once, while the remaining 19 offenders (22.1%) violated their conditions more than once. Furthermore, of the 97 offenders who committed new criminal offenses, 41 (42.3%) were both arrested for a new criminal offense and also had at least one other violation of the conditions of their supervision.

The period of time between reentry into the community and the recidivism event is measured as the “street time” that the offender was at risk until the first arrest, conviction, or revocation time in six month increments. As shown, recidivism increased at a relatively steady rate for approximately the first three years following release and then grew at a much slower rate thereafter. The statutory maximum period of supervised release for the vast majority of this thirds of offenders recidivated during their terms of supervision, and one-third recidivated after their supervision ended. A small number of offenders recidivated for the first time after being in the community for more than five years.” (pp. 300-301)

Predicting Recidivism Among Adult Male Child Pornography Offenders: Development of the Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT)
Seto, M. C., & Eke, A. W. (2015, April 6). Law and Human Behavior. Advance online publication. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/lhb0000128
Abstract
In this study, we developed a structured risk checklist, the Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT), to predict any sexual recidivism among adult male offenders with a conviction for child pornography offenses. We identified predictors of sexual recidivism using a 5-year fixed follow-up analysis from a police case file sample of 266 adult male child pornography offenders in the community after their index offense. In our 5-year follow-up, 29% committed a new offense, and 11% committed a new sexual offense, with 3% committing a new contact sexual offense against a child and 9% committing a new child pornography offense. The CPORT items comprised younger offender age, any prior criminal history, any contact sexual offending, any failure on conditional release, indication of sexual interest in child pornography material or prepubescent or pubescent children, more boy than girl content in child pornography, and more boy than girl content in other child depictions. The CPORT was significantly associated with any sexual recidivism, with moderate predictive accuracy, and thus has promise in the risk assessment of adult male child pornography offenders with further cross-validation.

Specifics included:

For CP only offenders (n=135)

• • • Any re-offense = 24%
    • Release failure = 14%
    • Violent (including sex) = 4%
    • Contact sex = 3%
    • CP = 7%

But: for CP & non-violent and/or violent (n=90)

• • • Any re-offense = 49%
    • Release failure = 40%
    • Violent/sex = 10%
    • Contact sex = 3%
    • CP = 12%

Child pornography possessors and child contact sex offenders: A multilevel comparison of demographic characteristics and rates of recidivism.
Faust, Bickart, Renaud.
Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment, Vol 27(5), Oct, 2015. pp. 460-478.
Abstract:
Considerable debate surrounds the topic of whether possessing or distributing online images of childpornography (CP) represents a new type of crime perpetrated by conventional sex offenders (e.g., childcontact [CC] sex offenders), or whether individuals who commit these crimes differ from contact sex offenders in meaningful ways. The current study compares groups of Internet (CP) and CC sexual offenders, with each group’s sexual offending history exclusively confined to its offense category. T tests were used to conduct bivariate comparisons of group demographics and criminal histories. Rates of recidivism were examined using survival curves and Cox proportional hazard regression models. Results showed significant differences on demographic and criminal history variables, with CP offenders demonstrating a lower frequency of prior criminal offending and substance abuse, and higher rates of pre-incarceration employment and level of education. Rates of recidivism were significantly different between the two groups, with CP offenders showing lower rates of re-offense for most measures of recidivism. When controlling for background characteristics and the timing of the event, CC offenders were at much greater risk for having an arrest for a new crime or a non-sexual violent crime than CP offenders. Treatment and policy implications are discussed, along with suggestions for future research.

Specifics included:

For Non-contact CP (n=428)

• • 19.2% had probation violations
  • 1.6% had noncontact sex offense / CP
  • 3.0% had contact offense

For contact offenders (n=210)

• • 38% had probation violations
  • 14.3% hand nonsexual/violence
  • 5.7% had contact sex offense

Multiple Indicators of Sexual Interest in Prepubescent or Pubescent Children as Predictors of Sexual Recidivism.
Stephens, Skye. Cantor, James M., Goodwill, Alasdair M., Seto, Michael C.
Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, Mar 13, 2017.
Abstract (English):
Objective: Sexual interest in children is a well-known risk factor for sexual reoffending (recidivism). The present study examined the relationship between sexual interest in prepubescent children (pedophilia) or pubescent children (hebephilia) and sexual recidivism. It extended previous work by using multiple indicators of sexual interest, using a more sensitive phallometric procedure that measures change in penile blood volume, and examining both hebephilia alongside pedophilia, as well as noncontact sexual recidivism. Method: Six hundred fifty-six men who had committed a sexual offense underwent a comprehensive sexological assessment that included multiple sexual interest measures: volumetric phallometry, self-report, and sexual behavior. Criminal record data were acquired to examine recidivism. Offenders were followed for an average of 10 years of opportunity. Results: Indicators of hebephilia and pedophilia were significantly associated with noncontact sexual recidivism, but inconsistently associated with contact recidivism. The relationship with phallometrically assessed pedophilia and contact sexual recidivism was significant after controlling for offender age statistically. Phallometrically assessed sexual arousal to children did not add to risk appraised by an actuarial measure. Conclusion: Both hebephilia and pedophilia were predictive of noncontact sexual recidivism. The results for contact sexual recidivism are discussed, including a potential confound in previous work on the assessment of sexual interest in children.

Correlates of Admitted Sexual Interest in Children Among Individuals Convicted of Child Pornography Offenses.
Seto, Michael C., Eke, Angela W.
Law and Human Behavior, Apr 06, 2017.
Abstract:
Recent research on a risk assessment tool for child pornography offending suggests that admission of sexual interest in children is a risk factor for any sexual recidivism. Admission is easily vulnerable to lying, however, or to refusals to respond when asked about sexual interests. This may become a particular issue when individuals are concerned about the potential impact of admission of sexual interest on sentencing and other risk-related decisions. In this study, we identified the following behavioral correlates (coded yes/no) of admission of sexual interest in children in the risk tool development sample of 286 men convicted of child pornography offenses: (a) never married (54% of sample), (b) child pornography content included child sexual abuse videos (64%), (c) child pornography content included sex stories involving children (31%), (d) evidence of interest in child pornography spanned 2 or more years (55%), (e) volunteered in a role with high access to children (7%), and (f) engaged in online sexual communication with a minor or officer posing as a minor (10%). When summed, the average score on this Correlates of Admission of Sexual Interest in Children (CASIC) measure was 2.21 (SD = 1.22, range 0–6) out of a possible 6, and the CASIC score was significantly associated with admission of sexual interest in children, area under the curve (AUC) = .71, 95% CI [ .65, .77]. The CASIC had a stronger relationship with admission in a small cross-validation sample of 60 child pornography offenders, AUC = .81, 95% CI [.68, .95]. CASIC scores may substitute for admission of sexual interest in risk assessment involving those with child pornography offenses.