ONLINE OFFENSE: Estimating Youth Images

Estimating Age from Images
(Acknowledgements to Dr. Andrew J.R. Harris for sharing his excellent insights in personal communications.)

This topic overview of estimating the ages of various adults and youth is drawn from Dr. Simpson’s review of the research literature.  It also is informed by personal discussions with Dr. Andrew J.R. Harris, a leading researcher regarding sex offense and offenders.  Much of the following material is from a pending article that is in press as of August 2018.  

Attraction to Younger Images in the United States and in the World
Ogas & Gaddam, (2011) researched people’s sexual preferences in online pornography searches.  They examined over 400 million individual searches submitted to a specific web browser between July 2009 and July 2010 and found over 55 million of these searches were for sexual material.  Of these searches the most common search phrase was “youth”, which accounted for 13.54% of all sexual searches.  

Arguably the best source of information on what pornographic images people search for are the yearly statistical reports produced by one of the larger pornography distribution sites – PornHub.  In 2014 “teen” was the third most popular pornographic search term in the United States.  In 2015 “teen” was the fourth most popular pornographic search term, and in 2016 “teen” was the third most common category of pornography searched for in the United States.  With reference to worldwide consumer patterns, the US accounts for approximately 40% of the PornHub traffic across these three years.  In the broader market, the pornographic search term “teen” was the most common search term worldwide in 2014, second most common in 2015, and the fourth most common is 2016.  The tracking data consistently show that interest in young images is very common not only in the United States but worldwide.  

Sexual Fantasy by Adults in the General Population of Significantly Younger People 
Fantasies of having sexual encounters with “someone much younger” than themselves are quite common within the general population (Reynaud & Byers, 1999).  A more recent study by Joyal, Cossette, & Lapierre (2014) surveyed Americans from the general population and found that 57% of men and 18.1% of women admitted to having sexual fantasies about “having sex with someone much younger (legally) than me”.  Further, 1.8% of men and 0.8% of women admitted to fantasizing about “having sex with a child under the age of 12 years”.  When the data were reduced to themes, 3.3% of men admitted to fantasizing about having sex that “involves a teenager – between the ages of 13 and 17”.

As is evident from the internet search data of both Ogas and Gaddam (2011), the PornHub yearly summary data, and a study of sexual fantasy in the general population (Joyal, Cossette, & Lapierre, 2014), a great deal of the population has fantasies involving teen, youth, and young people.  

Statutory sexual offending

  • Age of Consent is currently 16 in Canada and ranges from 14-to-18 in the United States.
  • Statutory sexual crimes accounted for approximately a quarter of all sexual crimes involving minors in the United States in 2000 (Troup, Leasure & Snyder, 2005).  
  • Hines & Finkelhor (2007) found that 1% of girls ages 11-to-12 and 4% of girls ages 13-to-15 reported voluntarily having sex with a male who was five or more years older (Leitenberg & Saltzman, 2000). 
  • A national study showed a little over 1% for all respondents had sex for the first time before the age of 14 with someone who was six-or-more-years older (Abma, Martinez, Mosher, & Dawson, 2004).  
  • 13% of adolescent girls had a sexual experience with an adult male who was three or more years older. The typical age difference was three or four years. 80% of the sexual experiences were described as voluntary (Manlove, Moore, Liechty, Ikramullah, and Cottingham, 2005)

Troup-Leasure and Snyder (2005) found the following:

  • 95% of the statutory incidents involved minor females and almost all of these incidents involved older males as perpetrators.  The perpetrators were adults in 82% of the cases. The majority of female adolescents were 14 or 15 years old, and the meeting age difference was six years. So the male was typically a young adult. 
  • It was rare for statutory sexual offences to involve strangers – 29% of offenders were considered boyfriends or girlfriends, and another 62% were considered friends or acquaintances.  This leaves 9% as strangers.  
  • Arrests occurred in 42% of the incidents. Arrests were less likely if the older person was the minor’s boyfriend or girlfriend.  
  • With regards to male adolescent victims, they were 5% of the cases.  In these cases, 94% of the older persons were female. This suggests that the majority of statutory offenses involved heterosexual participants.  
  • The medium age difference for male adolescents was nine years, which is larger than the medium age difference for female adolescents.  (Troup-Leasure and Snyder -2005)         

The Estimation of Age from Photography
The “Tanner Scale”, developed by the pediatrician Dr. James Tanner, is frequency used to estimate ages of children/adolescents in child pornography cases.  But In 1998, Dr. Tanner and Dr. Rosenbloom wrote a letter to the editor of the publication Pediatrics warning against the misuse of the Tanner Scale in these cases.  They stated that the scale was intended to identify “early and late maturers” where the age of the child was already known.  The scale was to be used for medical, educational, and sports purposes, not determining chronological age.  The doctors warned that using the Tanner scale for determining chronological age is “wholly illegitimate”.  Further, they cautioned “pediatricians and other physicians to refrain from providing “expert” advice as to chronological age based on Tanner Staging” (Rosenbloom & Tanner, 1998, p. 1494).

In a 2012 study by Rosembloom, et al.; four board-certified pediatric endocrinologists review 547 pictures of adult women taken from a men’s magazine.  All models had been certified as over the age of 18 at the time the images were taken.  The four physicians could only agree on 17 of the images depicting breasts were in Tanner stage IV, which is only 3.1% agreement.  On a further 36 images, there was agreement from three examiners, resulting in 6.6% agreement; an additional 39 images were agreed on by two examiners, 7.1% agreement; and a further 53 images were designated as Tanner Stage IV by only one examiner, 9.7% agreement; resulting in an overall error rate of 26.5% among four highly experienced board-certified pediatric endocrinologists.  Rosenblum and colleagues point out that assessments of pornographic images are carried out almost totally by evaluation of breast development because in most pornographic representations the female subjects, for artistic, erotic, or other considerations, have partially or completely shaved pubic hair.  These authors conclude, that “failure to appreciate the frequent persistence of TS 4 [Tanner Stage 4] breast development into adulthood and difficulty in distinguishing TS4 from TS5 [Tanner Stage 5] breast development, especially in nonclinical still or video images, has resulted in testimony that has no scientific basis” (p. 3).

A study by Rosenbloom (2012) showed images of adult women taken from known, legal, pornographic sites to 16 pediatric endocrinologists who had expertise in evaluating maturation.  These doctors were charged with attempting to determine whether the individuals represented in the images were under the age of 18 years.  The women in the images were all documented as being over the age of 18 years at the time the images were taken.  69% of the 160 estimates produced by these experts stated that the images represented females under the age of 18.  Of the 16 evaluators, 13 were female.  The results of this study are as follows,

Sixty nine percent of the 160 estimates were that the images represented females <18 years of age.  One individual found three of the 10 images to be of females <18 years, but Sixty nine percent of the 160 estimates were that the images represented females <18 years of age.  One individual found three of the 10 images to be of females <18 years, but all others found at least six of the images to be of females <18 years of age.  This included four examiners rating six images as underage, two examiners thus rating seven images, three examiners considering eight images under age, and five examiners thusly interpreting all but one image. There were no images interpreted by all examiners to be either under or over 18 years of age.  (Rosenbloom, 2012, p. 469).

This study also showed that 16 pediatric endocrinologists relied most commonly on breast development for making their evaluations.  Rosenbloom’s study shows that “medical testimony even by experts in adolescent development, can deem images of adult women selected for their youthful appearance to be under age 18 two thirds of the time” (p. 470).  Rosenbloom concludes that “justice requires the avoidance of testimony that is not scientifically based” (p. 470).  Again, Rosenbloom quotes Tanner, saying that “the Tanner scales were not designed to be used for estimating chronological age, forensically or otherwise”. 

A further study by Cattaneo et al., (2009) used 15 Italian expert evaluators, five forensic pathologists, five pediatricians, five gynecologists, and 13 laypersons to review photographs of 11 nude adult females.  A second group of German experts of the same basic composition (total = 23) reviewed the same images with the same instructions; to determine which of these photographic subjects were females less than 18 years old and which were 18 years or older.  All females in the photographs were over the age of 18 when the photographs were taken.  All professional and lay groups underestimated the age of the models in the photographs. 

The best results were obtained by forensic pathologists who correctly identified the women as being over 18 years of age in 60% and 50% of cases (for Italy and Germany respectively):  Laymen (50% and 23% respectively) performed second best.  Pediatricians incorrectly classed the girls as under 18 in 73% and 95% of cases respectively and gynecologists in 69% and 91% of cases. (p. e23)

It is telling that German and Italian laypeople performed this task better than Pediatricians and Gynecologists, clearly bringing into question whether any expertise at all is evident in these judgements.  The authors conclude that “forensic and medical experts should avoid such unscientific behavior which may have drastic consequences in a court of law” (p. e23). 

Again, to quote Rosenbloom & Tanner (1998):
This is a wholly illegitimate use of Tanner staging: no equations exist estimating age from stage, and even if they did, the degree of unreliability in the staging [of] the independent variable would introduce large errors into the estimation of age, the dependent variable. Furthermore, the unreliability of the stage rating is increased to an unknown degree by improperly performed staging, that is, not the clinical examination but through non-standardized [sic] and, thus, unsuitable photographs (p. 1494).

Therefore, we wish to caution pediatricians and other physicians to refrain from providing “expert” testimony as to chronological age based on Tanner staging, which was designed for estimating development or physiologic age for medical, educational, and sports purposes, in other words, identifying early and late maturers. The method is appropriate for this, provided chronological age is known. It is not designed for estimating chronologic age and, therefore, not properly used for this purpose (p. 1494). 

It must be pointed out that there are no published or available studies, in any language that support the use of the Tanner Stages for reliably assessing the age of photographic subjects.  Rosenbloom (2012) gives a reason for this, stating that “there are no studies because of the wide variation in the age of pubertal onset of approximately six years, and of progression, such that the duration from the start to completion of maturation can vary from 3 to 7 years.” {Findings from Brooke, C. G. D., Stanhope, R. (1989)}

Application in the Courts
A further example of the un-reliability of making judgments as to chronological age using the Tanner Stages based upon unsuitable representations such as digitized films and photographs was seen in the case U.S. v. Simon-Timmerman No. 09-296 (FAB).  Mr. Simon-Timmerman was returning to the United States mainland from Puerto Rico. In his possession were three DVDs of a well-known Puerto Rico porn star “Little Lupe”.  In this proceeding an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) special agent Alek Pacheco testified that the actor in the DVD’s was a minor child.  The agent estimated that “Little Lupe’s” age was between 13 and 14 years old.  Also testifying was a licensed pediatrician Dr. Pedro R. Juanarena, who testified “to a medical certainty” that the actor depicted in the DVDs was a minor child.  The adult actress shown in the films, Lupe Fuentes, was required by the prosecutor, Jenifer Yois Hernandez-Vega to fly to the mainland United States and to show proof of age at the time of filming after which the case was dismissed.  However, by this time Mr. Simon-Timmerman had spent three months in pretrial detention.

In 2006, Kelly Hoose (Worcester Superior Court, Massachusetts; Judge John S. McCann; December 19, 2006) was charged with four counts of possessing child pornography after prosecutors alleged that images on his computer represented underage females.  Mr. Hoose was found not guilty after the images were seen to be the property of a legitimate commercial website and one of the models appeared in court to testify that she was 20 years old when the images were taken (Murry, December 28, 2006)

Rosenbloom (2012) also refers to a recent court-martial (Court-Martial, SSgt Swearington, 2012) where “Tanner rating, in addition to the body habitus, body hair patents, musculature, dentition, head to body ratio, overall size, maturity of facial features, …” Was rejected by the court and the plaintiff acquitted (p. 5).

The general unreliability and inadmissibility of visual age identification from photographs has been well known within the legal community since an influential Pepperdine Law Review article was published in 2004 that clearly reviews problems with the use of Tanner Stages, (Fradella, O’Neill, & Fogarty, 2004).

The Daubert standard generally states that a witness who is qualified as an expert by knowledge, skill, expertise, training, or education may testify in the form of an opinion or otherwise if:

  1. The expert’s scientific, technical, or other specialized knowledge will help the trier of fact to understand the evidence or to determine a fact in issue;
  2. The testimony is based on sufficient facts or data;
  3. The testimony is the product of reliable principles and methods; and
  4. The expert has reliably applied the principles and methods to the facts of the case.

As clearly shown above, both by experimental study of experts in the field with specialized scientific knowledge (pediatricians, endocrinologists, forensic pathologists, & gynecologists) and in practical court applications and findings that the principles and methods of chronological age determination from photographs and digital representations are not reliable.  Indeed, when laypersons perform better than both gynecologists and pediatricians it begs the question if there is any expertise, knowledge, skill, training, or education involved.  

Documents obtained from the Office of Special Investigation, include a child sexual maturity rating.  This report is dated . . . . . . . and gives an opinion that 10 images all appeared to be females less than 15 years old.  No methodology for coming to these conclusions was included in this report nor provided for this author to review.

Referring again to the Daubert criteria stated above, the lack of any statement of methodology, the lack of any evidence of reliability or validity in the methods used, and the lack of any evidence of any knowledge, skill, expertise, training, or education qualifying the investigators is quite troubling.  

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Abstracts

A billion wicked thoughts: What the world’s largest experiment reveals about human desire.
Ogas, Ogi, and Gaddam, Sai. 
New York, NY, US: Dutton/Penguin Books; 2011. xii, 394 pp.
Abstract:
Two bold young neuroscientists have initiated a revolution in the scientific study of sexual attraction. Before Ogi Ogas and Sai Gaddam, the only researcher to systematically investigate sexual desires was Alfred Kinsey, who surveyed 18,000 middle-class Caucasians in the 1950s. But Ogas and Gaddam have studied the secret sexual behavior of more than a hundred million men and women around the world. Their ingenious method? They examined what people do on the Internet. They analyzed a billion web searches, a million websites, a million erotic videos, a million erotic stories, millions of personal ads, and tens of thousands of digitized romance novels. Their groundbreaking findings will profoundly alter the way you think about the relationships of women and men. By combining online behavioral data with cutting-edge neuroscience, Ogas and Gaddam have uncovered shocking truths. Men prefer plump women to thin ones. Women enjoy reading about two heterosexual men having sex. Men often seek erotic videos featuring women in their fifties and sixties. Other than preferring males, gay men have almost identical sexual desires as straight men. For the very first time, Ogas and Gaddam reveal profound differences between the sexual brains of men and women. Just like the hardwired taste cues on your tongue—sweet, sour, salty, savory, and bitter—humans have hardwired sexual cues. But though men and women share the same taste cues, their sexual cues are very different. And they work differently: A single cue triggers arousal in the male brain, but a woman’s brain requires multiple cues to become aroused. Men’s brains form their sexual interests during adolescence and rarely change, while women’s sexual interests are plastic and change frequently throughout their lives. In men, physical arousal and psychological arousal are united, while in women, psychological arousal is separated from physical arousal. Is your partner telling you what really turns him on? Is your partner faking her pleasure? And just how unusual are your own desires? A billion wicked thoughts will change the way you think about your sexual life.

Inaccuracy of age assessment from imagesof postpubescent subjects in cases of alleged child pornography.
Rosenbloom AL
International Journal Of Legal Medicine [Int J Legal Med] 2013 Mar; Vol. 127 (2), pp. 467-71. Date of Electronic Publication: 2012 Sep 08.
Abstract:
Despite frequent medical expert testimony authoritatively stating that images of individuals who are postpubescentindicate age less than 18 and therefore, child pornography, developmental experts have noted that a scientific basis for such estimation is lacking. In fact, recent studies have demonstrated a high degree of inaccuracy in such estimates, and that the stage of breast development often used as indicative of age under 18 years is present in a substantial percentage of adult women. Ten images of adult women from legitimate pornographic sites promoting youthful images were shown to 16 pediatric endocrinologists expert in evaluating maturation, who determined whether or not the individuals represented were under 18 years of age. They also provided information about what features were most important in their evaluations. Sixty-nine percent of the 160 estimates were that the imagesrepresented females under 18 years of age. There was wide variability in the designation of importance of the various features of maturation in reaching conclusions, with breast development and facial appearance considered most important. This study confirms that medical testimony, even by experts inadolescent development, can deem images of adult women selected for their youthful appearance to be under age 18 two thirds of the time. Thus, important as prosecuting users of child pornographic material may be, justice requires the avoidance of testimony that is not scientifically based.